Disrupted Markets
You can’t control fuel prices, interest rates, government policy, or what’s happening in Iran. You can’t control the pace of AI development or whether your industry becomes one of many distupted markets next month or next year.
Here’s what you can control:
Your Cash Position
If you don’t know exactly where your cash goes every month, fix that first. Not in a general sense. Specifically.
- Are your costs being paid on time? Late payments compound into bigger problems. Suppliers tighten terms during downturns and the businesses already behind get cut first.
- Are your taxes current? Tax debt is the silent killer of small businesses in a downturn. IRD doesn’t care about your cash flow problems. If you’re behind, get a plan in place now — not when they come knocking.
- Do you get paid something? If the business is consuming everything and you’re living on hope, that’s a structural problem, not a timing one.
- Are you being paid your worth? Most small business owners work more hours than their employees for less per hour. In times like now, be prepared to work more — the learning curve demands it, the transition demands it, leadership demands it. But make damn sure the business is at least working towards paying you properly for it.
- Do you have a plan for paying down debt? Debt is a bet that the future will be better than today. In a disruption, that bet gets riskier. Reducing debt reduces your vulnerability.
- What is the state of your war chest? Three months of operating expenses in cash you can access. Not invested. Not tied up. Liquid. This is the single most important thing separating businesses that survive disruptions from those that don’t.
Your Value Proposition
Yes, review your prices against your costs. If your costs have gone up, your prices need to reflect that — don’t absorb the hit and erode your margins into nothing.
But pricing isn’t the main game right now. This is:
Are you creating genuine value for your customers?
Not what you think is valuable from your side of the counter. What your customers actually want and need. What’s valuable to them. Because their world is shifting too. Their costs are rising. Their priorities are changing. Every dollar matters to them more than it did six months ago.
In disrupted markets, customers shop around. That’s not disloyal — it’s rational. The businesses that win are the ones delivering unmistakable value. Value so clear the customer doesn’t need to shop around because they know what they’re getting.
Don’t polish. Go to market good enough and refine on the fly. There’s too much change happening too fast — every day you spend perfecting is a day you’re not delivering and learning. Get it out there and get feedback. Adjust. Repeat. Speed of iteration beats depth of planning in times like these.
Your Dependencies
- Where are you vulnerable?
- Key person dependency? (What happens if you or your critical team member can’t work for a month?)
- Single customer concentration? (What happens if your biggest client cuts back?)
- Single supplier dependency? (What happens if they can’t deliver?)
- Debt-to-income ratio? (What happens if revenue drops 20%?)
- In stable times, concentration is efficient. In volatile times, concentration is dangerous. Map your dependencies. Diversify the ones you can. Accept the ones you can’t but at least know they’re there.
Your Knowledge and Capability
This is the investment that compounds. Every disruption punished people who stopped learning and rewarded people who didn’t.
You don’t need to become an AI expert. But you need to understand what AI can do for your specific business. Not what some influencer says it can do. What it can actually do for the work you do every day. Try it. Use it. Break it. Learn what it’s good at and where it falls over. That knowledge is the asset.
The same applies to understanding what’s happening in the economy, in your industry, in the world. Don’t outsource your thinking to the news or to social media. Do your own homework. Form your own view. Because the people who understand what’s actually happening will make better decisions than those who don’t — and in disrupted markets, better decisions compound.
Your Network
Who do you know and who knows you? Who would help you if you needed it and who would you help?
Build these relationships now. Not when you’re desperate. Desperation is a terrible negotiating position. Be the person who creates value for others before asking for anything in return.